(School of Business Jiangnan University, Jiangnan University Wuxi Jiangsu 214122)
Abstract: The quality of agriculture is the basis for food security, as well as the logical starting point and intrinsic requirement for the promotion of the structural reform at the supply end in agriculture. This paper presents a model validated with the dataset containing survey data from 986 households in 100 villages scattered among five different major agricultural production provinces in China. In this research, a mathematical model is established on the basis of naive Bayesian classification to predict the production safety behavior of farmers. It is found that the naive Bayesian model is not only an effective tool for the prediction and evaluation of the farmers’ production safety behavior, But it can well reflect the influence of different factors on farmers' behavior in this regard as well. And with a high accuracy in the said prediction, this model will have a promising prospect for its application. On the part of policy suggestion, the paper stresses the importance of the government’s guiding role with regard to the farmers’ behavior, the necessity of increased support for the social organizations related to this business, and the renewed efforts to improve the overall quality of the farmers, all of which aim at both the standardization of the farmers’ behavior and the source control concerning the quality and safety of agricultural production.
Key Words: Bayesian networks; naive Bayesian classification; farmers’production safety behavior; factors influencing farmers’production safety behavior