(School of Economics and Law， Bohai University， Jinzhou Liaoning 121000)
Abstract: In the framework of difference-in-difference method and based on the provincial panel data of China mainland’s 30 provinces, Hong Kong and Taiwan from 1998 to 2014, the paper firstly uses the DEA-Malmquist index method to calculate the level of total factor productivity in different regions, followed by more precise further studies, which provides the basis for the authors to make further efforts by using of the DEA-Tobit model for an analysis of the effect of China’s university enrollment expansion policy on the growth of total factor productivity.The empirical results show that the average growth rate of total factor productivity in China during the study period was 0.9%. The growth rate presented a yearly downward trend, and kept pace with the slowdown of China’s economic growth. The power source of China’s total factor productivity growth was the technical progress of 2.7%，and the deterioration of technical efficiency of -1.8% inhibited the growth of total factor productivity. The regional economic growth in China featured a fine performance, but there still existed substantial space for improvement. In about one out of ten sample regions, the total factor productivity is found to be increased by the joint work of technological progress and technological efficiency improvement.However, the enrollment expansion policy in universities has had an obviously negative effect on the growth of total factor productivity in the mainland regions in China. After the enrollment expansion of universities, the growth rate of total factor productivity in China mainland decreases by 146% to 175% from province to province.
Key Words： enrollment expansion of universities; total factor productivity; DEA; difference-in-difference method