（Institute of Latin America, Chinese academy of social sciences, Beijing, 100007; Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese academy of social sciences, Beijing, 100836）
Abstract：Scientific & technological innovation provides the strategic support to improving social productivity and overall national strength, as well as the effective way to maintain high quality economic growth. At present, the ever-increasing seriousness of the problems of aging population and resources dependence is exerting a significant impact on scientific & technological innovation in China. This paper, by using China's provincial data from 2006 to 2015, attempts to analyze the influence and transmission mechanism of the problem. The conclusion shows that the relationship between aging population and scientific & technological innovation and that between resource dependence and scientific & technological innovation are respectively inverted U-shaped and ‘smile’-shaped. As the direct effects of the above are transmitted through indirect effects on human capital, both effects need to be reduced for scientific & technological innovation by trying to increase willingness but decrease cost for aging people to invest in human capital, as well as accelerating the optimization of the internal structure for the resource-based industries.
Key Words：aging population problem; resources dependence; scientific & technological innovation; human capital; non-linearity