(Institute of Quality Development Strategy, Wuhan University)
Abstract：As a manufacturing country that is in the critical period of economic transformation, the development status, future and impact of China's industrial robots is a very important research topic. However, due to the lack of first—hand survey data, the existing literature does not conduct a com¬prehensive empirical analysis of the above issues. In view of the shortcomings of the existing litera¬ture, this paper comprehensively uses the three consecutive rounds of " China Employer — Employee Survey" (CEES) data in 2015，2016 and 2018 to further explore the development trend of robots in China and its impact on enterprises. Empirical research. Using weighted statistics, propensity score matching, predictive analysis and other identification strategies, this paper finds that： First, in recent years, robots have experienced explosive growth in China, which has affected more than one—third of China's manufacturing enterprises. According to the current investment growth rate, China's robot coverage and use density will approach the advanced national level around 2025. Second, the overall substitution effect of robots on China's labor market is 0. 3% ； and, the above — mentioned influence effects have asymmetric effects on different skill labors, and unskilled labor is more impacted by ro¬bots' "substitution". Third, there are obvious microscopic differences in the use of robots in Chinese enterprises. Productivity heterogeneity and government policy bias are important reasons for the mi¬croscopic differences in robot use. Fourth, the causal inference shows that the use of robots has an im¬portant promoting effect on the production efficiency, quality capability and management efficiency of Chinese enterprises, and can reduce the uncertainty of business operations to a large extent； according to the growth rate of existing robot investment The overall substitution effect of China's robots on the labor market will climb to 4. 7% around 2025. The conclusions of this paper have important reference significance for the comprehensive understanding of the development status and macroeconomic impact of Chinese robots.
Key Words：Robot；CEES；Weighted Statistics；PSM；Predictive Analysis